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Which NFL Defenses are Improving, and Which are Declining
When analysts typically compare defenses, they resort to two general stats: yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. Both generally fine when in a basic conversation, but both generally...
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The Best Short Yardage Backs in the League
Shonn Greene is a laughable figure. He’s not fast, he’s not explosive, he’s not good by most standards. Yet he’s entrenched as the Titans starting running back and isn’t going to yield it without a...
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Psychology of the Draft and Overpaying at the End of Rounds
Great general managers will find inefficiencies in the draft and exploit them. Whether it’s taking players at undervalued positions, or maneuvering around the draft board, these small advantages can...
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The NFL VIX (Volatility Index): Running Backs; DeMarco Murray Isn’t Human
We have already looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) for wide receivers and their expected yards per game. Let’s look at this concept for running backs. Unlike receivers, running backs touch the ball...
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NFL Penalties are Worth Over One Point Per Drive; Steelers Biggest Offenders
Coaches might want to have their players tighten up their performance. Penalties might be worth more than you would expect. Using Pro Football Reference’s “Expected Points” data from the first five...
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2007 Patriots Offense, 2000 Ravens Defense, Most Dominant Teams in the Past...
There are offenses and defenses that are considered the pinnacle of the sport. The 02 Buccaneers. The 07 Patriots. The 00 Ravens. The 13 Broncos. It’s fairly simple to point at Points Per Game (PPG)...
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The Best and the Worst NFL Teams of the Past Fifteen Years
Earlier we discussed teams based upon their points per drive rates, instead of their raw numbers. Similar to evaluating a running back on their yards per carry instead of their total rushing yards,...
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Teams Need Offense to Make the Super Bowl; Defenses to Win It
Points per drive is one of the best measures of a team’s eventual success. Teams that are at least one standard deviation over the league average when combining both offensive points scored per drive...
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Just How Good is the Packers Offense? And How Bad are the Jaguars and Bears?
You’ll note that I’m a big fan of rate statistics when it comes to offensive output and the Green Bay Packers are setting the curve on offense. We look at Points For and Against Per Drive (PFPD and...
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NFL Game Script in Short Yardage Situations
I was interested in how the Patriots conversion rate in short yardage plays compared to the rest of the league and decided to expand the scope of the project. As it turns out, the Patriots have been...
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